Summer Box Office Struggles to Match Last Year’s Success
The summer box office season is facing a sluggish start this year, struggling to replicate the blockbuster success of last summer’s “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” which together raked in nearly a billion dollars domestically. This year, studios are pinning their hopes on a mix of mid-range sequels, prequels, and family-focused animated films like “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” “Bad Boys: Ride or Die,” and “Inside Out 2” to fill the gap.
The aftereffects of prolonged Writers Guild and SAG-AFTRA strikes have caused production delays, further hindering the summer box office, which traditionally draws the largest movie theatre audiences. Paul Dergarabedian, a senior media analyst at Comscore, emphasized the significance of the summer season, stating, “Summer is the most important moviegoing season of the year, accounting on average for nearly 40% of the total domestic annual revenue.”
Shawn Robbins, founder of Box Office Theory, predicted a 20% to 25% decrease in box office grosses this summer compared to last year, barring any major overperformances.
The Elusive $100-Million Opening Weekend
Historically, the period between Memorial Day and Labor Day has been a lucrative time for the box office, often bringing in upwards of $4 billion domestically. Last summer saw a significant post-pandemic recovery with $4.09 billion in earnings, thanks to hits like “Sound of Freedom,” “Oppenheimer,” and the record-breaking “Barbie.”
However, this year has yet to see a movie surpass the $100 million mark on its opening weekend, a feat typically achieved by major intellectual property-driven films and family-friendly animations. Dergarabedian noted the absence of a Marvel movie to kickstart the summer momentum, describing this season as a “late bloomer.”
Disney’s Potential Box Office Resurgence
Disney’s upcoming releases, “Deadpool & Wolverine” and “Inside Out 2,” are expected to be key players in potentially crossing the $100 million threshold this summer. Daniel Loria, editorial director at Box Office Pro, highlighted the unusual absence of significant releases from Disney in the first half of the year due to production delays and the impact of labour strikes.
“Inside Out 2” is forecasted to open between $80 million and $100 million, while “Deadpool & Wolverine” has already set a record for best first-day ticket presales at Fandango, indicating strong potential for a significant box office haul. Loria predicts it could earn between $170 million and $210 million on its opening weekend.
Industry Hopes for a Strong Finish
Despite a slow start, industry experts remain optimistic about the year’s potential. Robbins noted that the first half of the year saw gaps between major releases, but the second half could still fill the void with anticipated titles like “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” and “Joker: Folie à Deux.”
Loria echoed this sentiment, highlighting the continued enthusiasm for the theatrical experience and the potential for blockbuster hits to emerge. Box Office Pro projects that the 2024 box office will gross $8.2 billion, which is about 10% lower than last year’s $9 billion but still a sign of recovery from the pandemic’s impact on the industry.
As the summer progresses, studios and moviegoers alike are hopeful that upcoming releases will reignite the box office and bring a strong finish to the year.
