2024 Beer Trends: Bud Light Will Try to Bounce Back

As the beer industry navigates the ebbs and flows of 2023, the spotlight shifts to anticipated trends shaping the landscape in 2024, with Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), the producer of Bud Light, eyeing a significant comeback.

Amidst the aftermath of the boycott faced by Anheuser-Busch InBev, competitors such as Constellation Brands (STZ) and Molson Coors (TAP) are poised to capitalize on the market dynamics, presenting a competitive landscape while Bud Light sets the stage for a resurgence.

Noteworthy shifts in consumer preferences are also on the horizon, including the growing popularity of Mexican import beers, canned cocktails, and the increasing demand for non-alcoholic options. According to Filippo Falorni, Vice President at Citi, the Bud Light controversy was a pivotal force in the beer industry in 2023, with domestic brands like Coors Light and Miller Lite seizing 80% to 85% of the share losses experienced by Bud Light.

Molson Coors reported a 4.5% increase in brand volumes in the US during Q3, with notable contributions from Coors Light, Coors Banquet, and Miller Lite. Constellation Brands emerged as a winner, posting mixed quarterly results but experiencing a 4% surge in beer sales, driven by high demand for its Modelo Especial and Pacifico lines.

While addressing investors, Constellation Brands CEO Bill Newlands highlighted the success of Modelo Especial and Pacifico in gaining market share for draft beers, with Corona Extra leading as the number one packaged beer sold on-premise.

Industry experts, such as Bump Williams of Bump Williams Consulting, predict that retailers will continue to allocate more shelf space to Mexican import brands in the coming months, further fueling the momentum gained in the latter part of 2023.

Investment analysts also express confidence in Constellation Brands as a standout performer in 2024. Vivien Azer, managing director at Cowen, emphasizes the strength of the Modelo brand, particularly popular among younger drinkers, making Constellation Brands its top idea for the year.

In contrast, Anheuser-Busch InBev faces challenges, with North America volumes dropping 17.1% year-over-year in its latest quarterly results. The company must also navigate negotiations for a new contract with brewery workers by February 29, with potential strike implications looming.

Despite the varying fortunes of beer manufacturers, 2024 offers a silver lining for all brewers: lower input costs, with a decline in aluminum prices. The industry anticipates benefiting from this cost relief, providing a positive outlook for the year.

As the beer landscape evolves, additional disruptors, including flavored beverages, ready-to-drink cocktails, health and wellness trends, and the ascendance of tequila, promise to shape the industry’s trajectory in 2024. With consumers increasingly gravitating towards diverse options, breweries are poised to adapt and innovate in response to dynamic market preferences.